Spatial provenance

Where does this timber's growth signal come from?

SG-OAK-014 · Ulm, Baden-Württemberg (DE)

✦ find spot● master (filled = q < 0.05; size ∝ t)▮ interpolated mean t (IDW)— river rafting · - - sea corridor (schematic)··· best-supported source

Masters tested (21 of 21 georeferenced)

undated: best position per master (q: scan, then across masters)

Master	Network	Taxon	Span	Depth	t BP	t H	Glk	n	q	km	decay	trade
Central European Oakdemo	Southern Germany	Quercus robur / petraea	700–2005	51	7.4	7.6	68%	142	1.5e-7	142	1.00	0.12
Alpine Sprucedemo	Alpine	Picea abies	900–2010	39	4.7	4.6	63%	142	0.0462	190	1.00	0.03
British Isles medieval oak composite (10 ITRDB sites)ITRDB	British Isles	Quercus spp.	812–1458	129	3.8	4.5	62%	142	0.2306	1092	0.24	0.00
Torneträsk Scots pine, Holocene (ITRDB SWED334)ITRDB	—	Pinus sylvestris	-5407–2010	178	4.2	3.9	52%	142	0.1813	2270	0.02	0.00
Baltic Oak (export timber)demo	Baltic	Quercus sp.	1100–1660	33	4.1	3.8	62%	82	0.1813	873	0.39	0.01
Nordrhein-Westfalen/Ostmünsterland drt03 (ITRDB GERM216)ITRDB	Central Europe	Pinus sylvestris	1837–2005	9	3.5	4.1	62%	99	0.2037	400	1.00	0.04
East Pomerania oak (ITRDB POLA006)ITRDB	Baltic	Quercus robur	996–1985	59	4.2	3.1	61%	81	0.1813	706	0.57	0.00
Obergurgl spruce (ITRDB AUST003)ITRDB	Alpine	Picea abies	1276–1974	67	4.0	3.2	56%	142	0.1813	189	1.00	0.03
Baltic Pinedemo	Baltic	Pinus sylvestris	1250–2010	37	3.5	3.3	61%	142	0.3083	776	0.49	0.01
Kerimäki subfossil pine composite (3 ITRDB sites)ITRDB	—	Pinus sylvestris	559–1732	100	3.5	3.2	60%	142	0.3316	1912	0.04	0.00
Rostrevor oak (ITRDB BRIT)ITRDB	British Isles	Quercus petraea	812–1458	10	3.6	3.0	58%	122	0.3316	1336	0.14	0.00
Vallée des Merveilles larch (ITRDB FRAN045)ITRDB	—	Larix decidua	946–2007	105	3.3	3.0	56%	142	0.4386	521	0.85	0.01
Bjorbo (ITRDB SWED305)ITRDB	Scandinavian	Pinus sylvestris	1450–2002	28	3.5	2.8	49%	142	0.3316	1374	0.13	0.00
Wroclaw (ITRDB POLA017)ITRDB	Polish uplands & Silesia	Quercus robur	1727–1986	22	3.1	2.8	59%	142	0.3316	604	0.71	0.00
Central Oland (ITRDB SWED339)ITRDB	Scandinavian	Quercus spp.	1429–2004	45	3.3	2.6	53%	142	0.3316	1030	0.28	0.00
Maastricht St. Jan's Church Roof Timbers (ITRDB NETH016)ITRDB	Rhine / Moselle	Quercus spp.	1191–1457	12	3.1	2.6	60%	137	0.3983	413	1.00	0.04
Abcoude subfossil oak, Iron Age–Roman (ITRDB NETH019)ITRDB	—	Quercus spp.	-324–30	10	2.9	2.6	51%	131	0.5637	559	0.78	0.02
Schonegrund Oberer Bannwald (Tree Means) (ITRDB GERM014)ITRDB	Southern Germany	Pinus sylvestris	1769–1971	14	2.9	2.6	57%	94	0.3316	70	1.00	0.11
Niepolomice, Gibiel (ITRDB POLA038)ITRDB	Polish uplands & Silesia	Pinus sylvestris	1622–2003	58	2.9	2.3	52%	113	0.3316	777	0.48	0.01
Koblenz (ITRDB DEU340)ITRDB	Rhine / Moselle	Quercus petraea	1848–2018	98	2.8	2.4	54%	76	0.7217	277	1.00	0.11
Dransfeld (ITRDB GERM226)ITRDB	Central Europe	Quercus petraea	1770–2002	45	3.0	1.1	56%	96	0.4386	345	1.00	0.05

Candidate source catchments

1Southern Germany (Swabia · Bavaria)94.8%

2 masters · best Central European Oak (Quercus robur / petraea, 700–2005, n≤51) · t̄ 7.5 · q 1.5e-7 · prior 1.00

2Alpine (Tyrol · Graubünden · Savoy)5.2%

2 masters · best Alpine Spruce (Picea abies, 900–2010, n≤39) · t̄ 4.6 · q 0.0462 · prior 1.00

3British Isles0.0%

2 masters · best British Isles medieval oak c (Quercus spp., 812–1458, n≤129) · t̄ 4.1 · not significant · prior 0.24

4Torneträsk, Lapland (SE) (no network)0.0%

1 master · best Torneträsk Scots pine, Holoc (Pinus sylvestris, -5407–2010, n≤178) · t̄ 4.0 · not significant · prior 0.02

5Baltic (Vistula lowland & coast)0.0%

3 masters · best Baltic Oak (export timber) (Quercus sp., 1100–1660, n≤33) · t̄ 3.9 · not significant · prior 0.39

6Central Europe (Lower Saxony · Harz · Hesse)0.0%

2 masters · best Nordrhein-Westfalen/Ostmünst (Pinus sylvestris, 1837–2005, n≤9) · t̄ 3.8 · not significant · prior 1.00

7Kerimäki, Savonlinna (FI) (no network)0.0%

1 master · best Kerimäki subfossil pine comp (Pinus sylvestris, 559–1732, n≤100) · t̄ 3.3 · not significant · prior 0.04

8Vallée des Merveilles, Alpes-Maritimes (FR) (no network)0.0%

1 master · best Vallée des Merveilles larch (Larix decidua, 946–2007, n≤105) · t̄ 3.2 · not significant · prior 0.85

9Scandinavian (S Sweden · S Norway)0.0%

2 masters · best Bjorbo (ITRDB SWED305) (Pinus sylvestris, 1450–2002, n≤28) · t̄ 3.1 · not significant · prior 0.13

10Polish uplands & Silesia0.0%

2 masters · best Wroclaw (ITRDB POLA017) (Quercus robur, 1727–1986, n≤22) · t̄ 3.0 · not significant · prior 0.71

11Rhine / Moselle0.0%

2 masters · best Maastricht St. Jan's Church (Quercus spp., 1191–1457, n≤12) · t̄ 2.9 · not significant · prior 1.00

12Abcoude / Baambrugge (NL) (no network)0.0%

1 master · best Abcoude subfossil oak, Iron (Quercus spp., -324–30, n≤10) · t̄ 2.8 · not significant · prior 0.78

Score = relative cross-dating support × max(distance decay, trade plausibility) × Sr screen, normalised. A ranking for screening, not a calibrated probability of origin.

⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr screening

± 2σ

No measurement recorded

Baltic	0.7105–0.7165	—
Polish uplands & Silesia	0.7095–0.7155	—
Central Europe	0.7100–0.7200	—
Rhine / Moselle	0.7095–0.7140	—
Southern Germany	0.7080–0.7100	—
Alpine	0.7080–0.7220	—
British Isles	0.7090–0.7145	—
Scandinavian	0.7150–0.7400	—

Illustrative baseline ranges from regional geology, not a published bioavailable Sr isoscape. Replace with a calibrated isoscape before relying on exclusions.

Trade corridors (schematic)

— Vistula rafting → Gdańsk → Øresund → Low Countries
- - Neman → Klaipėda → Baltic → North Sea
- - Daugava → Riga → Gotland → Øresund → London
— Rhine timber rafts (Black Forest → Mainz → Dordrecht)
— Moselle floating (Trier → Koblenz)
After documented Baltic timber exports (Ważny 2002; Daly 2007). Routes are generalised for screening.